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There will still be a very healthy population in FFXI for some time. I personally know quite a few players right now that only have access to dial-up internet still, and FFXI supports that very well. These newer MMOs require a broadband connection to play them...such as FFXIV.
Second, with the delay of FFXIV on the PS3 until March 2011 at the earliest, that puts a huge delay on the masses of Japanese players getting in and playing, thus they'll prolly stick with FFXI for awhile yet. To my knowledge, most Japanese players are dependant on their Playstations for gaming as oppossed to a huge high-end desktop PC. Last I heard like 70-80% of the Japanese population in FFXI were on their PS2.
